Ivan NagornyakPublic policy · European integration

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2 September 2026

Iceland's "no": three lessons for Ukraine and the next EU enlargement

On 29 August, 52.8% of Icelanders said "no" to returning to negotiations on EU membership. I draw three conclusions: the EEA/EFTA model works, the next enlargement has lost a convenient political construction, and the EU's appeal for wealthy states has limits. Ukraine and the other candidates have to think even harder about how to sell enlargement inside the EU itself.

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