EU Accession Roadmaps: How Ukraine Can Avoid the Western Balkan Traps

POLITICO Europe reports that the European Commission is preparing EU accession roadmaps for Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro, and Albania, outlining priority reforms and tentative schedules for negotiations. 🇪🇺
For me, the main question is: will member states also take on concrete commitments?
In the Western Balkans, a lack of clarity from the Council of the EU led to mixed results. North Macedonia received a recommendation to start negotiations in 2009, yet the first intergovernmental conference did not take place until 2022. Progression was held back, in particular, by bilateral disputes with member states. This kind of experience undermines trust in the process: it is difficult to convince the public to support complex reforms when their outcome depends on political circumstances beyond the country's control.
Four things are critical here for Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇪🇺

1. The roadmaps must be supported by all 27 member states at the Council of the EU level. ❗️

The Commission assesses a candidate's readiness, but the subsequent steps depend on the consent of national governments. Therefore, the roadmaps need to be approved by the Council of the EU, and they must define timelines both for Ukrainian reforms and for the corresponding actions of the European Union—including compliance assessments, the drafting of recommendations, and the review of decisions.
While this will not eliminate the possibility of a veto, governments will be forced to explain why they are deviating from the agreed schedule if Ukraine has fulfilled its part of the deal.

1. Ukraine also needs a realistic accession timeline. ❗️

In my opinion, the National Program for the Approximation of Legislation to EU Law (NPAA) adopted by the Cabinet of Ministers in April looks overly optimistic regarding certain complex reforms. Because of these deadlines, some experts refuse to take the document seriously at all. We are targeting the completion of legislative adaptation by 2027, with potential transition periods. However, simply passing laws does not mean that new rules and institutions have actually started working.
For other candidate countries, complex institutional changes took years. Ukraine can move faster, but this must be justified: what decisions, people, and resources will sustain such a pace. Without this, tight deadlines look unconvincing.
Therefore, slightly later dates in the Commission's proposals should not automatically be viewed as an attempt to stall accession. We need to evaluate the substance of the requirements and the feasibility of fulfilling them.
At the same time, it is crucial that the roadmaps maintain the principle of positive conditionality—the document must allow for faster progress if Ukraine delivers results ahead of schedule.

1. Candidates need protection from political blocking. ❗️

The EU has legitimate reasons to seek safeguards against future members violating the rule of law. At the same time, bilateral disputes should not halt negotiations indefinitely.
We should discuss limiting the veto at intermediate stages. A good starting point would be requiring a public justification for any objections: which specific agreed conditions did the candidate fail to meet? For bilateral disputes, a separate mediation procedure with defined timelines should be established.

1. Reforms must deliver economic results even before full accession. ❗️

Ukrainian businesses are already trading with the EU, but barriers remain. Politico also writes about the preparation of a refreshed approach to gradual integration. This approach needs to be tied directly to the roadmaps.
For each sector, it must be clear: what requirements Ukraine satisfies, how and when the EU verifies readiness, and which barriers are removed as a result. The roaming agreement has already proven that tangible benefits are possible prior to full membership. Industrial goods, payments, or energy require their own legal solutions, common rules, proper oversight, and dynamic decisions regarding the internal market regime once the conditions are met. That said, adherence to the rule of law remains an indispensable requirement.
For businesses, this will mean more certainty: what to invest in today and what operating conditions to expect tomorrow. For society, it will clarify the link between difficult reforms and economic outcomes, regardless of the EU's internal readiness for expansion.
This is exactly how I will evaluate the upcoming roadmaps: whether they translate fulfilled commitments into concrete decisions and tangible changes.